Nigel Farage GE Prediction
Well, big changes underway in terms of British politics and the latest comments from Nigel Farage I think very interesting of course, speculation continues as to whether Nigel will return to the front line of party politics or not, before I get to that though, just allow me to thank the many members here on the channel.
If you do want to become a member and support the channel do see the link down below. We’ve had Steve clearly a fan of the Swiss direct democracy system, Andrew meanwhile not very happy, it looks like with what he’s seeing from those in Westminster at the moment and Carol one of those and you see all the members there with the members badge next to their name, Carol urging people to wake up and vote Reform UK.
In terms of the next general election well it seems there’s sort of characteristic faffing around being reported over the weekend that you’re looking at everything from October to maybe November to maybe December but possibly June or July so a complete lack of decisiveness then it seems from Rishi Sunak’s government, but hey we’re used to that aren’t we?
I thought these comments though from Nigel Farage speaking to the Telegraph when he’s interviewed recently by Camilla Tominey show you just how big the change could be. The shift could be at the next general election just watch this, there is no Tory party but okay there’s no Tory party.
But You’ll Get Starmer!
So you’re happy, so you’re happy to have a government run by Starmer, more left wing than Blair, so we’ll see the introduction of votes for 16 year olds, we’ll see realignment with the EU, we’ll see mass immigration. All of the things that you stood against we’re now going to have four, years eight years.
I didn’t do a deal, I didn’t withdraw 320 candidates against the conservatives in 2019, having personally got rid of Mrs May because the Tory party didn’t have the balls to do it themselves. I didn’t do that to have migration at record numbers, to have 120,000 young men cross the English Channel, to have the tax burden at the highest since 1948, we’ve been completely betrayed with or without me.
I think Reform UK will get more votes than the Conservatives at the next election really, I do. In terms of numbers how that transpires in seats is absolutely anybody’s guess. Now, the prospect of Reform overtaking the Conservatives at the next general election is obviously a monumental task for Reform UK, however just consider this, others picking up on this including Ian Martin there that in the latest YouGov poll. national poll, there are now just four points between these two parties. So, if you look at the latest YouGov poll this week the Tories now have dipped below at 20% they’re on 19%, Labour with a whopping great big lead there 45%, Reform UK on 15%, Lib Dems on 8%, Greens on 7%.
Interesting I thought here that though Keir Starmer leads Sunak on the best PM question 33% to 18%, actually the clear winner is none of the above on 45% saying they can’t decide or back either of them.
Analyse the Reform UK Polling Data
Then, as ever when you break down these figures you see some really interesting statistics. So of those who voted Conservative at the last general election 46% only now still intending to vote Tory, 31% switch into Reform UK only 14% switch into Labour.
Of leavers again, Reform UK is now the most popular party 33% compared to the conservatives on 30% with Brexiteers. When it comes to working class voters Reform UK have overtaken the Tories now 19% to 16% in England. Reform UK only three points behind the Tories 16% to 19% in Wales there’s a very small sample there, but Reform UK ahead 21%-13% and finally Reform UK also ahead in the North of England now.
Of course under the first past the post system you know a huge amount of votes nationally can actually mean very few or no seats, but there does seem to be a tipping point under first pass the post where if Reform UK could overtake the Conservatives at that point they could be looking at winning a significant number of seats.
But let me know what you make of what Nigel had to say there? Can you see Reform UK overtaking the Tories or not? Who are you currently intending to back?
Do let me know in the comments below please. I will of course keep bringing you all the latest on this and more so please do like this video a quick thumbs up and of course as ever cheers for watching.