Nigel Farage offers by election analysis for the two results in Kingswood and Wellingborough constituencies.
The results are in, but what can we learn from the Kingwood and Wellingborough by-election results?
10% Kingswood By Election Result
Reform UK finished third with a stonking 10% vote share. For the first time in Reform UK’s short history this result mirrored their recent national polling results.
Rupert Lowe delivered a great result for Reform UK with a strong third place.
The collapse in the Tory vote is huge. There is no obvious appetite for Kier Starmer, if he wins the general election it will be creeping over the line by default, not because of a positive vote.
13% in Wellingborough By Election
Ben Habib delivered a superb 13% vote share for Reform in the Wellingborough by-election. Along with Rupert Lowe in Kingswood Reform UK received a vote share in line with their national polling for the first time.
Reform UK is on the march, building support very quickly as the legacy parties struggle to maintain their core base, let alone to attract new supporters.
What Actually Happened?
Kingswood By Election Analysis
In Kingswood, the Tories lost 19,000 votes. At the same time, Labour lost 5,000 votes, hardly a swing. A swing is a vote for, what happened was an apathetic stay at home non vote. This result does not demonstrate any appetite for a Labour government. They have not gained any new voters, on the contrary, they have lost votes. We are less than a year away from a general election in which Labour expect to do well.
We are yet to see a swing towards Labour in real terms. They did not win in the Kingswood Constituency, the Tories lost, that is a significant difference.
The big question for the general election is what the 19,000 stay at home Tories will do in the general election. Will they stay at home or can Reform UK encourage them to lend their vote to the only party representing a real change of direction?
Wellingborough By Election Analysis
In Wellingborough Labour also won. Or, the Tories also lost. Labour gained just 107 more votes than they achieved in 2019 at the last general election. Meanwhile the Tories lost 25,000 votes. Again, these Wellingborough Constituency voters decided to stay at home.
The outcome of the general election will come down to what those 25,000 disillusioned Tories decide to do. If they stay at home then yes, in all probability labour will win by default, but, if those angry disillusioned ex-Tories switch their vote to Reform Uk then Labour will have a genuine fight on their hands.
The Tories are not a centre right party, they have moved to the left, so much so that they have alienated their core vote. The only party representing the moderate right is Reform UK which is why they are in the ascendance.